003  
FXUS61 KBGM 220513  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  
THEN LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
235 PM UPDATE:  
 
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY):  
 
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING  
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTHEAST  
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.  
BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AREA-  
WIDE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN  
TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ALL OF FRIDAY AND INTO  
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S  
WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW AND COMFORTABLE. RADIATIONAL  
COOLING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS  
REMAINING IN THE 50S, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER  
SIDE.  
 
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY):  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT AS WELL, BUT CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS ON THE LOW  
SIDE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SLOWER  
NATURE OF THE FRONT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
DESPITE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR  
(1.00"-1.50" PWATS)  
 
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE, ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES  
OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY. THIS  
FEATURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES,  
MORE CLOUDS, BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AS 850MB  
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON  
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S MOST OF THE AREA, BEFORE  
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH FOG ALREADY AT ELM WITH LIFR  
VISIBILITIES. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RME, ITH, AND BGM. IFR TO  
LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ITH AND BGM. IF RME DOES  
GET FOG, VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN MVFR. FOG CLEARS UP  
BY 12 TO 13Z AND THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, BUT PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY BRING  
RESTRICTIONS AT KELM.  
 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL  
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BJG  
DISCUSSION...BJG  
AVIATION...BTL  
 
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