042
FXUS61 KBGM 221736
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
136 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
135 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG.
* SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
* TROUGH DIGS IN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER AS WELL AS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG I-90 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION:
..NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HURRICANE ERIN SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF SHORE, A
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE STORM WILL HELP
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW. TONIGHT, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFF SHORE AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVE INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
..SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGING LEFT BEHIND BY ERIN. THERE WILL BE SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE THANKS TO ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINA COAST.
THIS LOWS DEVELOPMENT IS TOO CLOSE TO THE SHORE TO REALLY
DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING BUT IT WILL HAVE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THAT
COULD HELP INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOOKS TO HELP INCREASE
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS IT HELPS MOISTEN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONT.
ON SUNDAY, A 250 MB JET STREAK STRENGTHENS WITH UPDATE NY AND
NEPA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AND THE AID OF SYNOPTIC LIFT, THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY NIGHT
DIDN'T HAVE MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER WAS LOWERED.
SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS IN
SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE, A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS IN MODELS. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUN ON
SUNDAY, SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, ODDS IS THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LITTLE SURFACE
HEATING. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR (35 TO 45 KNOTS) SO
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE AFTERNOON
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY MOVES
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER, WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS ALSO
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
..MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST, MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING COOL. WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AND 850 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 4
TO 8C, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 70S AFTER MONDAY.
WITH COOL NW FLOW AND WARM GREAT LAKE TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO MAINTAIN MUCH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEK RIGHT NOW BUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT, SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND STILL GOOD SOLAR HEATING AT THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR THERE COULD BE POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THOUGH FOG AND IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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