319
FXUS61 KBGM 050700
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A FOGGY MORNING FOR SOME AREAS, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
300 AM UPDATE:
AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR
THE SURFACE, FOG IS PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFOS CTP AND
BUF, FELT THAT COVERAGE WAS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN TIERS UNTIL 9AM. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE TO OUR EAST TODAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT ISN'T REALLY MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT
YESTERDAY. IN FACT, WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN SOME SPOTS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERLY PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER TODAY. AS A RESULT, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
TODAY, BUT THE CHANCES ARE THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE. IT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST (CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY). OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RE-INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT, MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LOCATED WEST OF I-81, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-88.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THROUGH MOST AREAS WEST
OF I-81/NORTH OF I-88 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT, IT IS ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS STARTING TO DRY OUT TO THE WEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAIN IN A "MARGINAL
RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SPC'S DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK, BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY BEING LOCATED JUST EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING, THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY
NORTH OF I-88 AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, BUT WITH MID 60S
TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS). IN FACT, CANNOT RULE OUT AN 80 DEGREE READING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (FAR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTY, PA). THAT WOULD MAKE A 20+ DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE:
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING IN AREA-WIDE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUDS WILL
BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE TUG HILL/NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT A FEW MAY CLIP
PARTS OF ONEIDA COUNTY OR THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE,
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL END BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE NBM BY BLENDING IN SOME OF THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE LOW TEMPERATURES, WHICH RESULTED IN FORECAST LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT GET INTO THE 30S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AND THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS OF CENTRAL NY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
300 AM UPDATE:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY QUIET AS OF NOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LARGELY DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GET SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S), BEFORE COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WENT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, A CLEARING SKY ALOFT WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH, IS RESULTING IN RESTRICTIVE
CONDITIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. KSYR IS THE MOST IFFY OF
THE TERMINALS FOR WHETHER RESTRICTIONS GET WORSE THAN MVFR, BUT
THE REMAINDER WILL SETTLE IN TO IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AFTER
INITIAL FLUCTUATIONS. KELM WILL PERSIST AT AIRPORT MINIMUMS
UNTIL SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN; A COUPLE OTHER TERMINALS COULD
TOUCH THEIRS. ONCE THAT BURNS OFF BETWEEN 11-13Z, A DRY VFR DAY
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
TEENS KNOTS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. SLACKENING OF WIND THIS
EVENING WITH CONTINUED ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT, WILL POSE A SMALL
WINDOW OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST
KELM-KITH-KSYR-KRME.
OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POST-FRONTAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR FROM TRAPPED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR, BUT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY MAY RESULT
IN OCCASIONAL MINOR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022>025-
044-045-055-056.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MDP
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