859
FXUS61 KBGM 051814
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE BEFORE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE:
THE NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSING OF A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL UPPER TROUGH SETTLING
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED IN THE MODELS AND SHOULD
NOT CAUSE MANY, IF ANY, HAZARDS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP FALLING IN AN ANAFRONTAL MANNER BEHIND THE
SURFACE FEATURE AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SUPPORTING
TROUGH. BEST DIURNAL HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
CATSKILLS AND UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK STILL
SHOWS THAT AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WHICH FOR NOW IS
STILL GOOD GIVEN JUXTAPOSITION OF DYNAMICS AND SOME
INSTABILITY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE FRONTAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR LOOKS TO BE RATHER POTENT THUS WE
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH WARMEST
READINGS IN THE 70S-NEAR 80 IN THE POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AND
BARELY INTO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF CNY AND NEPA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE:
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW SETS UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRYING
WORKING OVER OUR NEPA AND SOUTHERN TIER AREAS WHILE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER REGIME. THE BULK
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE TUG HILL DUE TO
THE PROJECTED WIND FLOW...HOWEVER STRAGGLING SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FROM AUBURN-SYRACUSE-ROME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY SHOULD QUASH THE
LAKE MOISTURE WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
CLEARING SKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE REGION UP FOR SOLID
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NBM GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COLDER BUT STILL MAINTAINS OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
40S. ONE CAN NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE COOLING POWER OF THIS
PLACE, THUS THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER AS TIME DRAWS ON...BUT IF FROST IS A
CONCERN...KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF THE MIND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
200 PM UPDATE:
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS MOVING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASSES REINFORCE OVER
THE NORTHEAST FOR A GENERALLY DRY WEEK. THE DEEP TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO RELAX WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME RETURN OF WARMER AIR BY
MIDWEEK. THERE'S A HINT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LACK OF MOISTURE. EVEN THE
WETTEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH FL040-060 STRATOCU CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TEND
TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CEILING COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM
WEST-EAST LATE. CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY FROM 09Z-18Z
ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY UNCERTAIN ON
SPECIFIC THRESHOLDS THIS FAR OUT SO SETTLED ON MVFR AND FUEL
ALTERNATES IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR WILL DEVELOP AT SOME AIRPORTS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
RAIN BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE BUT NIL CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE
EFFECTS. MODEL GUIDANCE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF LLWS WHICH WAS
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY EVENING...SHOWERS DIMINISHING, BUT COOLER AND MOIST AIR
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POST-FRONTAL RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR FROM TRAPPED MOISTURE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR, BUT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY MAY RESULT
IN OCCASIONAL MINOR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
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