182
FXUS61 KBGM 060557
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE BEFORE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
200 PM UPDATE:
THE NOTABLE FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSING OF A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL UPPER TROUGH SETTLING
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED IN THE MODELS AND SHOULD
NOT CAUSE MANY, IF ANY, HAZARDS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP FALLING IN AN ANAFRONTAL MANNER BEHIND THE
SURFACE FEATURE AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SUPPORTING
TROUGH. BEST DIURNAL HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
CATSKILLS AND UPPER DELAWARE VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK STILL
SHOWS THAT AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WHICH FOR NOW IS
STILL GOOD GIVEN JUXTAPOSITION OF DYNAMICS AND SOME
INSTABILITY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS.
THE FRONTAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR LOOKS TO BE RATHER POTENT THUS WE
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH WARMEST
READINGS IN THE 70S-NEAR 80 IN THE POCONOS-WYOMING VALLEY AND
BARELY INTO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF CNY AND NEPA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE:
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW SETS UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRYING
WORKING OVER OUR NEPA AND SOUTHERN TIER AREAS WHILE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER REGIME. THE BULK
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE TUG HILL DUE TO
THE PROJECTED WIND FLOW...HOWEVER STRAGGLING SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FROM AUBURN-SYRACUSE-ROME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY SHOULD QUASH THE
LAKE MOISTURE WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
CLEARING SKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE REGION UP FOR SOLID
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NBM GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COLDER BUT STILL MAINTAINS OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
40S. ONE CAN NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE COOLING POWER OF THIS
PLACE, THUS THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH THE MID 30S WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER AS TIME DRAWS ON...BUT IF FROST IS A
CONCERN...KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF THE MIND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
200 PM UPDATE:
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS MOVING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASSES REINFORCE OVER
THE NORTHEAST FOR A GENERALLY DRY WEEK. THE DEEP TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO RELAX WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME RETURN OF WARMER AIR BY
MIDWEEK. THERE'S A HINT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LACK OF MOISTURE. EVEN THE
WETTEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING, TO
KAVP IN NORTHEAST PA AROUND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WILL DELAY SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO
PRIOR EXPECTATIONS, WITH SHOWERS ALSO HANGING JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
FUEL ALTERNATE LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITHIN HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS,
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THAT AND IT IS MORE PROBABLE FOR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. THUNDER CHANCES ARE ALSO
QUITE LIMITED, THOUGH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON
KAVP BEFORE THAT SHUNTS EAST LEAVING A FEW MORE POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REVERT TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AFTER THE FEW-TO-SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POST-FRONTAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP FROM TRAPPED MOISTURE, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR RAIN.
SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH WITH
CLEAR SKY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MUCH OF THE TIME, VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE AT KELM DAILY FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
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