075
FXUS61 KBGM 061800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
155 PM UPDATE:
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED THE REGION THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. OUR CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WAS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW EAST OF THE REGION,
SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TODAY. ONCE THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP YET THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A
BATCH OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
INLAND THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BUT BEST CHANCES FOR OUR REGION WILL BE
FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY AND UP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NY'S
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY, AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FLOW THEN BECOMES WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT WITH THE FLOW BEING OFF OF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
THE NORTHERN SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY. THE LINE OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL EXTEND INTO THE TWIN
TIERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY, SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CMC AND NAM
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH MANUAL EDITS WERE ALL USED TO INCREASE POPS
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE WARMER
AREAS BEING THOSE THAT STAY UNDER THE CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND THEN FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
SOME AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST. THE NBM TENTH
PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED IN WITH NBM GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
155 PM UPDATE:
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BUT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION WILL HELP CUTOFF ANY REMAINING SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL THEN BE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER WITH
THE RETURN OF 70S ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AND THAT COULD LEAD TO EARLY
MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COOLER AIRMASS
LINGERS, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ON MONDAY.
THIS FORECAST DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT USING THE
SAME 50/50 BLEND OF NBM AND NBM TENTH PERCENTILE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
155 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK
THAT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DIP IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. .
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH RME AND AVP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK
DOWN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RAIN TODAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AS WELL
AS HOW LOW RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT SOME TERMINALS. LIFR IS
EXPECTED AT ELM WHILE IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RME, ITH, AND BGM,
THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES VARY ON RESTRICTIONS AT THESE TERMINALS.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT SYR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT AVP OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12-13Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND SOME
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH WITH CLEAR
SKY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MUCH OF THE TIME, VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT
KELM DAILY FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BTL
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