834
FXUS61 KBGM 070545
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
155 PM UPDATE:
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED THE REGION THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. OUR CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WAS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW EAST OF THE REGION,
SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TODAY. ONCE THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP YET THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A
BATCH OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
INLAND THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BUT BEST CHANCES FOR OUR REGION WILL BE
FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY AND UP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NY'S
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
RAIN TODAY, AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FLOW THEN BECOMES WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT WITH THE FLOW BEING OFF OF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
THE NORTHERN SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY. THE LINE OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL EXTEND INTO THE TWIN
TIERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY, SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CMC AND NAM
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH MANUAL EDITS WERE ALL USED TO INCREASE POPS
FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE WARMER
AREAS BEING THOSE THAT STAY UNDER THE CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND THEN FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
SOME AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST. THE NBM TENTH
PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED IN WITH NBM GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
155 PM UPDATE:
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BUT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION WILL HELP CUTOFF ANY REMAINING SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL THEN BE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER WITH
THE RETURN OF 70S ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AND THAT COULD LEAD TO EARLY
MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COOLER AIRMASS
LINGERS, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ON MONDAY.
THIS FORECAST DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT USING THE
SAME 50/50 BLEND OF NBM AND NBM TENTH PERCENTILE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
155 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK
THAT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DIP IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. .
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW
CLOUDS DEPARTING THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT, BUT WITH
CLEARING BEHIND IT, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY TWO TERMINALS
THAT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS ARE AT KAVP AND
KSYR, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR, MVFR,
AND IFR-OR-WORSE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING OCCASIONAL IFR-OR-
WORSE VISBY AND/OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KELM, KITH,
AND KBGM.
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12-13Z AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW POP UP LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING TO PUT IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJG
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