784
FXUS61 KBGM 071053
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY. THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD YIELD
PATCHY FROST IN TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WITH DRY AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
240 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE AREA TODAY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.
THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXITED SATURDAY, REMAINS TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FORCED ASCENT IS STILL
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, COURTESY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS
STILL CAUSING OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 IN PA AND SOUTH OF I-88 IN NY. MEANWHILE,
SOME CLEARING TO THE WEST ALONG WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL, IS ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM FROM
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES ZONES.
JET SUPPORTED-SHOWERS SHOULD FINISH UP BY LATE MORNING, WITH AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE AREA TODAY. THAT SAID, THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STILL SWING THROUGH WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT, AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION VIA WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUIDE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS INTO DOWNWIND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S; ABOUT 7-9 DEGREES SHY OF AVERAGE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STIRRING WIND/PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER, SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STILL OCCUR IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHICH COULD GET A FEW SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S TONIGHT; MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT, AS COOLING IN THESE
SET UPS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS OFTEN UNDERDONE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
240 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH BUILDING OVER THE REGION, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY, BUT THE
AIR MASS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL TEND
TO ERADICATE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER TO YIELD A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS OF MID 60S-LOWER 70S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS IDEAL MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKY.
FORECAST AGAIN WAS LOWERED BELOW THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS. MID TO UPPER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED IN MUCH
OF THE TWIN TIERS TO UPPER SUSQUEHANNA AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON TUESDAY, MOSTLY 70S, UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE AFTER THE CHILLY DAWN. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRY TO EDGE IN WELL INLAND OF LOOSE LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WHICH WILL LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP FOR NOT QUITE AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT. STILL, LOWS OF 40S TO
LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
240 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
AT ONE POINT, THERE WAS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH FROM A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY-EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE NOW APPEARED TO COMMIT TO THE
IDEA OF THE FRONT BEING WEAK AND DRY, TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE
ALL THE WAY UP IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. THUS ALL THAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH THE WEAK VESTIGE OF A FRONT, WILL BE A REINTRODUCTION OF
RENEWED DRY HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DIP EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
TO PERHAPS SATURDAY, WITH UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. BEFORE
THAT, 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD (AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY). ANY REMAINING FOG AT KELM WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AT KELM
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS AGAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 10KTS OR LESS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page