260
FXUS61 KBGM 072314
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY. THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD YIELD
PATCHY FROST IN TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WITH DRY AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INTO THE REGION SOME
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANY QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO COME OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO THOUGH. A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WITH
VALUES FROM NEAR 50 IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SOME UPPER 30'S IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND SOME PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
VALUES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WITH SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUITE NICELY TOMORROW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 70 FOR HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER US TOMORROW NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY COLDER. HOWEVER, WARMING AT THE 850
MB LOOKS HINTS AT ONLY A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST
TOMORROW NIGHT. DID LEAVE IN A PATCHY MENTION WHERE THE LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID 30'S. INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN MODELED TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FAIRLY GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
THAT ANY SHOWERS STAY EAST OF OUR REGION BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDE RANGES DUE TO CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS. A LOT OF LOWS IN THE 40'S AND HIGHS IN THE 70'S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH VARYING TIMING.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ELM AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY OR SLOWLY IT WILL DEVELOP; BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-08Z, THEN SETTLE IN PLACE
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 08-12Z. FOG WILL LIFT SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AND ELM WILL RETURN BACK TO VFR AFTER 12-13Z.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS POPPING UP BY LATE MORNING, INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN, BY AROUND 14-15Z ON MONDAY,
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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