109
FXUS61 KBGM 080039
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, UNDER CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD YIELD PATCHY FROST IN TYPICALLY COLDER
SPOTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
830 PM UPDATE...
LOWER MINIMUMS IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS AS SKIES ALREADY
ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING AT MINIMUMS IN
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE FINGER LAKES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH
NORMALLY COLDER AIR AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST. WE ISSUES AN SPS TO COVER THIS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INTO THE REGION
SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANY QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUDS TO COME OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH. A WIDE RANGE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WITH VALUES FROM NEAR 50 IN THE FINGER
LAKES TO SOME UPPER 30'S IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. VALUES LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO
WARM FOR FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME. WITH SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND QUITE NICELY TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE
TO 70 FOR HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER US TOMORROW NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY COLDER. HOWEVER, WARMING AT THE 850
MB LOOKS HINTS AT ONLY A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST
TOMORROW NIGHT. DID LEAVE IN A PATCHY MENTION WHERE THE LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID 30'S. INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN MODELED TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FAIRLY GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
THAT ANY SHOWERS STAY EAST OF OUR REGION BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDE RANGES DUE TO CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS. A LOT OF LOWS IN THE 40'S AND HIGHS IN THE 70'S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH VARYING TIMING.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ELM AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY OR SLOWLY IT WILL DEVELOP; BUT THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-08Z, THEN SETTLE IN PLACE
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 08-12Z. FOG WILL LIFT SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AND ELM WILL RETURN BACK TO VFR AFTER 12-13Z.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS POPPING UP BY LATE MORNING, INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN, BY AROUND 14-15Z ON MONDAY,
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MWG
NEAR TERM...DJN/MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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