547
FXUS61 KBGM 082324
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
724 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND USUAL
COLDER LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY COLDER TONIGHT
WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 30'S. THIS WOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST WITH VALLEYS AND UNSHELTERED
LOCATIONS SEEING MOST OF IT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO
OCCUR AS WELL. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 70'S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER LIMITING ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN MODELED TO TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST. FAIRLY GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS STILL PRESENT THAT ANY
SHOWERS STAY EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NE PA INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDE RANGES DUE TO CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS OUTSIDE THE WEDNESDAY CLOUDS. A LOT OF LOWS IN
THE 40'S AND HIGHS IN THE 70'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CLEAR SLIGHTLY CHILLY NIGHTS. THE TRACK OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LARGELY DICTATE THINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
MENTION ANY SHOWER CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT VLIFR
FOG IS EXPECTED AT KELM 0800Z-1330Z. USING LOCAL OFFICE ANALOG
METHODOLOGY FOR KELM, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN FOG DURING THIS TIME WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FOG GOING BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AFTER VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF AND
LAST INTO THE AFERNOON ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVENING AND THEN MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-045-
046-057.
SYNOPSIS...MWG/DJN
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DJN
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