234
FXUS61 KBGM 090545
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, SETTING UP A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S, BUT SHOULD FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WE DO EXPECT
AREAS IN CORTLAND, DELAWARE, OTSEGO AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
FOR FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 2AM TO 8AM THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED COLD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING SLIDES TO THE NE AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. CAM
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW THE
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MIGHT BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS
TO PUSH ONSHORE SO POPS WERE NOT INTRODUCED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
FOR POP CHANCES DURING THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE
BY WED NIGHT. IT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR PROLONGED DRY SPELL, BRINGING SEASONABLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS TO THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS STARTING
TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS LOW GIVEN A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING UP IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. NBM POPS WERE USED FOR THIS PERIOD, WHICH BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND MON.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT VLIFR
FOG IS EXPECTED AT KELM 0800Z-1330Z. USING LOCAL OFFICE ANALOG
METHODOLOGY FOR KELM, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN FOG DURING THIS TIME WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR FOG GOING BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AFTER VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF AND
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVENING AND THEN MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-045-046-
057.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DJN
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