219
FXUS61 KBGM 110544
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENCE
IS THE BEST FORECAST WITH VERY SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED EACH
DAY. BASICALLY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS. ALSO, VALLEY FOG WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 0900.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
STRONG RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW AS THE DRY CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARD OFF ANY MOISTURE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. STUCK MOSTLY WITH NBM FORECAST,
HOWEVER, TOOK OUT THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BUT
INSTABILITY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, SO CAPPED THUNDER
CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRY
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRETTY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ELM WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE IFR AND BELOW RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT AS FOG SETTLES INTO THE VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BECOME PERSISTENT AROUND 9Z AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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