893
FXUS61 KBGM 110739
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL
BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG STARTING OFF EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVERS, STREAMS, LAKE AND RESERVOIRS. OTHERWISE, SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL SEE WARM AFTERNOONS THOUGH, AS A
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SWING IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD ONCE
AGAIN AS A SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AFTER THIS, THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
DRIER FOR OUR REGION, AND YET THE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHETHER
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN DIVE STRAIGHT SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
SETTLE INTO OUR AREA...OR WILL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PUSH EAST FASTER OVER OUR REGION. FOR NOW, DUE TO
THE ONGOING DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, DECIDED TO KEEP
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE WITH NBM (ENSEMBLE) DATA. ANY
RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A RETURN (OR CONTINUATION) OF MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT A LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS; IF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO DIG IN MORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
LOW, ALLOWING IT TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA, CHANCES
FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER
BLOCKY; WITH POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
(THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US)
WITH RISING HEIGHTS, THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+13C AT
850MB) EXPECT WARM DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE GRADUALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRETTY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ELM WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE IFR AND BELOW RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT AS FOG SETTLES INTO THE VALLEY. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BECOME PERSISTENT AROUND 9Z AND LAST UNTIL 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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