867
FXUS61 KBGM 120635
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY. DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE RIDGING WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GET DRIER AND NBM POPS ON EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE NOW. LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. AT
THIS TIME, IT IS LOOKING LIKE ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
DRY CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL AGAIN NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
FAVORING RISING THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+14C AT
850MB), SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE GRADUALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT AT THE
START OF THE WEEK AND MID 50S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE AT
ELM/ITH/SYR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS
IS AT ELM. RESTRICTIONS DID NOT PAN OUT LAST NIGHT AS WINDS
UNEXPECTEDLY PICKED UP RIGHT WHEN FOG WAS STARTING TO SETTLE IN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOMING CALM
AS THE CENTER OF A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE IN AFTER 9Z WITH IFR AND LOWER
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 13-14Z.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING IFR CHANCES AT ITH AND SYR TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN HOW DRY WE
ARE AND CONDITIONS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT TO TONIGHT.
WITH ENOUGH DEW ON THE GROUND AT ITH, WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISBY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR. AT SYR, GUIDANCE WAS REALLY HITTING
IFR RESTRICTIONS HARD FOR LATER THIS MORNING, BUT HAS BACKED OFF
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY GET A
LITTLE LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE TO PUSH IN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NW. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VISBY
BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z.
RME/BGM/AVP WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/JTC
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