459
FXUS61 KBGM 120743
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, COOL NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT STARTS
TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR NOW, ANY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DRY AND NBM POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NY ARE ONLY LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NOW...WITH IT ACTUALLY REMAINING DRY
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA. LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS LOOKING LIKE ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A FEW HUNDRETHS AT BEST), WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH EXITS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH PATCHY FOG MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL AGAIN NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE
FAVORING RISING THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+14C AT 850MB),
SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS FOR THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH
NIGHT AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE AT
ELM/ITH/SYR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS
IS AT ELM. RESTRICTIONS DID NOT PAN OUT LAST NIGHT AS WINDS
UNEXPECTEDLY PICKED UP RIGHT WHEN FOG WAS STARTING TO SETTLE IN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOMING CALM
AS THE CENTER OF A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE IN AFTER 9Z WITH IFR AND LOWER
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 13-14Z.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING IFR CHANCES AT ITH AND SYR TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN HOW DRY WE
ARE AND CONDITIONS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT TO TONIGHT.
WITH ENOUGH DEW ON THE GROUND AT ITH, WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISBY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR. AT SYR, GUIDANCE WAS REALLY HITTING
IFR RESTRICTIONS HARD FOR LATER THIS MORNING, BUT HAS BACKED OFF
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY GET A
LITTLE LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE TO PUSH IN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NW. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VISBY
BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z.
RME/BGM/AVP WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/JTC
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