842
FXUS61 KBGM 122325
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, COOL NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT STARTS
TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND ANY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. FOR OUR
AREA, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY
PROFILES AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IF ANY
RAINFALL DOES MEASURE ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VERY
ISOLATED, BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE JUST SEE SOME
VIRGA DURING THE DAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE FAVORING RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+14C AT 850MB), SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO VERY
WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS FOR THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH
NIGHT AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
ONLY POSSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FROM PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ELM WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AS IT TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF YEAR AFTER 6Z WITH THE
FOG BURNING OFF BY AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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