266
FXUS61 KBGM 130550
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, COOL NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT STARTS
TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND ANY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. FOR OUR
AREA, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY
PROFILES AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IF ANY
RAINFALL DOES MEASURE ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VERY
ISOLATED, BUT LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE JUST SEE SOME
VIRGA DURING THE DAY.
THE TROUGH EXITS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE FAVORING RISING THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+14C AT 850MB), SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO VERY
WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS FOR THIS ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH
NIGHT AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
ONLY POSSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FROM PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT AT ELM. ONCE AGAIN, THE FORECAST FOR ELM IS TOUGH GIVEN
THE RECENT DROUGHT AND LACK OF SURFACE PRECIPITATION, BALANCED
WITH A SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA WITH A RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY FOG ACROSS THE AREA BY 8Z
AND LASTING INTO THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. ELM
HAS SEEN IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG BOUNCE AROUND WITHOUT EVER
SETTLING IN, AND THIS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW ALSO LEND CONFIDENCE TO
PERSISTENT FOG NOT DEVELOPING AS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
HINDER SURFACE COOLING LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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