416
FXUS61 KBGM 130719
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
319 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE, SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE PERSIST BELOW 700MB. THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THIS IS BELOW EVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OF 15% FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. OVERALL, EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN
THE DAY, LESS THAN 10 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE
MID-70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY LINGERING INTO TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY FEATURES ABOUT A 10% CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE CATSKILLS, OTHERWISE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S EXPECTED READINGS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR THE ENTIRE TIME.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE TYPICAL
RIVER AND CREEK VALLEYS AS LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. MEANWHILE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND DEAMPLIFY
DURING THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BE BROKEN DOWN
BY A RATHER WEAK, UNDERCUTTING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER BY
THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WE THEN WAIT FOR THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND TROUGH TO APPROACH...BUT
THIS LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY OR NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, AT 850MB WILL HOVER NEAR +15C DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
UNDER THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE. SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS: WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NE PA...CLOSER TO THE
WEAKENING MID-ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH; OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND CONTINUED WARM. FRIDAY IS LIKELY ANOTHER DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...STEADY HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75-85F EXPECTED. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...SO CONTINUED WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS AS THE 01Z NBM
WAS NOT ONBOARD WITH THE POSSIBLE WETTER CONDITIONS SHOWN BY THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS JUST YET.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT AT ELM. ONCE AGAIN, THE FORECAST FOR ELM IS TOUGH GIVEN
THE RECENT DROUGHT AND LACK OF SURFACE PRECIPITATION, BALANCED
WITH A SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA WITH A RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY FOG ACROSS THE AREA BY 8Z
AND LASTING INTO THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. ELM
HAS SEEN IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG BOUNCE AROUND WITHOUT EVER
SETTLING IN, AND THIS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW ALSO LEND CONFIDENCE TO
PERSISTENT FOG NOT DEVELOPING AS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
HINDER SURFACE COOLING LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page