555
FXUS61 KBGM 131735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO
SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES, SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS, ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS VERY LOW.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW AREAS OF SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT THE CHANCES FOR ANYWHERE TO MEASURE ABOVE 0.01"
IS VERY LOW SO POPS WERE KEPT BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OF 15%.
FOR TOMORROW, ONCE AGAIN, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE CATSKILLS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT STILL UNLIKELY ANYTHING
MEASURABLE WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOONS AND WARM
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. NIGHTS WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN THE LONG TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE MAY WIN
OUT ACROSS THE NE U.S., HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COME THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NE PA,
WHICH IS REASONABLE AS A LOT OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE WEEK AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SHOWERS. NBM IS JUST INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NOW,
BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND IF POPS START TO INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
15Z UPDATE...
SENT A NON MISSION CRITICAL "COURTESY" UPDATE TO EMPHASIZE BKN-
OVC MID LAYER CLOUDINESS COMING IN HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED IN
PRIOR FORECAST. STILL A VFR DAY. ALSO ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING FROPA TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ELM TONIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING SOME FOG AT RME,
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST WEEK PLUS,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...JAB/JTC
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