247
FXUS61 KBGM 140621
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS. DRY AND WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS PAST AFTERNOON MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IS LOW,
BUT IF THEY DEVELOP, RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND
WITH NO MORE THAN A TRACE EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WE WILL SEE AN INCURSION OF
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY TIME (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, THE RIDGE SITTING OVER US SHOULD KEEP THIS
LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NEPA WED NIGHT. THE LOW SEEMS TO BE
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
WILL BE OVER THE AREA, WITH LITTLE STEERING CURRENTS PRESENT.
ONCE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
US COASTLINE, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD KICK OUT TO THE NE
THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE WIDELY
VARIES ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXTENDED RIDGING OVER THE PAST
WEEK SO NOT SEEING MUCH IN RAIN CHANCES. WHEN THE FRONT DOES
MOVE THROUGH, WE ARE NOT SEEING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CHEMUNG BASIN OF CENTRAL NY.
THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A GOOD SET UP FOR VALLEY FOG AT KELM; TYPICAL
OF ANY CLEAR NIGHT IN MID SEPTEMBER. INTERMITTENT IFR VIS STARTING
TO FLUTTER IN-AND-OUT THROUGH 09Z, THEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN AT VLIFR/AIRPORT MINIMUMS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 09-13Z.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT FOG HAS FAILED TO FIRMLY ESTABLISH
ITSELF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HERE, LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL AND RATHER DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IS HIGHER THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RECENT MORNINGS. OVERALL FOG CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MODERATE AT ELM...AND WE WILL AMEND THE TAF AS OR IF NEEDED.
OTHER TERMINALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY VFR BECAUSE OF HOW DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOR MANY DAYS, WHICH WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
SHALLOW TO VALLEYS LIKE KELM. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND RIGHT INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MID-MONRING, BEFORE TURNING NW/NE UNDER 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...MJM/MDP
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