746
FXUS61 KBGM 141617
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW BRINGS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND, WITH
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 40S IN SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80. FINALLY,
THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO MORNING RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WE WILL SEE AN INCURSION OF
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY TIME (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY SNEAK SOME MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS THE POCONOS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, THE THINKING IS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW, BUT AT THIS TIME, ALL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN IN OUR
AREA, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED
ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTER HAS SHAPED UP LATELY, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WIN OUT. FOR NOW,
NBM ONLY IS ADVERTISING 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY, BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE VALUES TREND LOWER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
COMING IN DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY, SHALLOW LIGHT FOG INVOF OF ELM UNTIL
12-13Z THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND RIGHT INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS RENEWED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AFTER 06Z LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
MAINLY IMPACT ELM, BUT SOME LIGHTER MVFR FOG OR MIST COULD REACH
SYR AND ITH AT TIMES EARLY MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE
TURNING NW/NE UNDER 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...MJM
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