823
FXUS61 KBGM 142333
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW BRINGS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND, WITH
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 40S IN SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80. FINALLY,
THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO MORNING RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WE WILL SEE AN INCURSION OF
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY TIME (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY SNEAK SOME MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS THE POCONOS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, THE THINKING IS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW, BUT AT THIS TIME, ALL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN IN OUR
AREA, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED
ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTER HAS SHAPED UP LATELY, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WIN OUT. FOR NOW,
NBM ONLY IS ADVERTISING 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY, BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE VALUES TREND LOWER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
COMING IN DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VARIABLE TO CALM WIND WIND VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. DESPITE A LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL, IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL KELM RESTRICTIONS, MODEL
GUIDANCE REASONABLY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE AND UP TO DAWN FOR KSYR-KRME AND PERHAPS
KITH. THIS IS CREDIBLE CONSIDERING CURRENT DEWPOINTS ABOVE
EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, AND A LACK OF MIXING.
FOR KELM, THOUGH THE FLOW OFF THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY FROM
EAST- NORTHEAST, BUT IT WILL GO VERY LIGHT AND THUS GIVEN OTHER
FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION FACTORS INCLUDING CLEAR SKY THERE IS
STILL PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT RESTRICTIVE FOG WILL FORM,
LIKELY TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY
MORNING, VFR CONTINUES ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG
LIKELY EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...MDP
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