543
FXUS61 KBGM 150606
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW BRINGS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND, WITH
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 40S IN SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80. FINALLY,
THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO MORNING RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. WE WILL SEE AN INCURSION OF
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY TIME (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY SNEAK SOME MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS THE POCONOS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, THE THINKING IS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW, BUT AT THIS TIME, ALL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN IN OUR
AREA, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED
ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTER HAS SHAPED UP LATELY, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WIN OUT. FOR NOW,
NBM ONLY IS ADVERTISING 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY, BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE VALUES TREND LOWER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
COMING IN DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MORE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.
ELM IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE THE HOT SPOT FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS CALM.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY COOLED TO THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT IF IFR AND
LOWER OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS LONG AS CONDITIONS REMAIN AS
FORECAST, LIFR FOG SHOULD SETTLE IN AFTER 8Z AND REMAIN UNTIL
12-13Z.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING FOG CHANCES AT SYR/RME/ITH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
THESE TERMINALS. IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION IS NOT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR
VISBY FROM FOG DO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY DROP THE TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY
FOG. GUIDANCE WAS HITTING SYR THE HARDEST EARLIER TONIGHT, BUT
HAS REALLY BACKED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW GLAMP RUNS, GIVING
CONFIDENCE IN THE LACK OF IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG
LIKELY EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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