668
FXUS61 KBGM 150641
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
241 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
STARTING OFF WITH PLENTY OF RIVER/CREEK/LAKE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS NE PA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER
80S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN. LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE
50S AREAWIDE. A COASTAL LOW REMAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL SEE
AND EASTERLY FLOW AND A 1025MB HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LATE DAY HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN
FOR NE PA AND THE WYOMING VALLEY/POCONOS REGION. VERY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID- 70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS ABOUT
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN, AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
EASTERN NC TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AND
OPEN TROUGH AT 500/700MB AS IT THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE
COAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW COMPLETELY WEAKENS AND A
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY; ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN
TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MONTICELLO TO
SCRANTON LINE. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AREAWIDE. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS
LOOKING DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
75-85F EXPECTED THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY RELATIVELY MILD IN THE
50S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES REMAIN SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY, BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +10C OVER CENTRAL NY
AND +12C FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY. THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S...EXCEPT STILL NEAR 80 IN
THE WYOMING VALLEY REGION. SATURDAY FEATURES A SPRAWLING 1030MB HIGH
SLIDING INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. OUR AREA WILL SEE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE
NO WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, SO IT SHOULD
BE LARGELY DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. MUCH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID-30S TO MID-40S FRIDAY NIGHT, 40S SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
BACK TO MAINLY UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MORE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.
ELM IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE THE HOT SPOT FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS CALM.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY COOLED TO THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT IF IFR AND
LOWER OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS LONG AS CONDITIONS REMAIN AS
FORECAST, LIFR FOG SHOULD SETTLE IN AFTER 8Z AND REMAIN UNTIL
12-13Z.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING FOG CHANCES AT SYR/RME/ITH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
THESE TERMINALS. IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION IS NOT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR
VISBY FROM FOG DO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY DROP THE TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY
FOG. GUIDANCE WAS HITTING SYR THE HARDEST EARLIER TONIGHT, BUT
HAS REALLY BACKED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW GLAMP RUNS, GIVING
CONFIDENCE IN THE LACK OF IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG
LIKELY EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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