256
FXUS61 KBGM 160526
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF TO OUR
NORTH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW WHICH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
THE MID 50S. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF I-81 ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-STACKED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL BE DRIFTING WESTWARD
FROM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO OVER SE VA AND NE NC BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OFF
THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW NIGHT
ACROSS NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS WITH AN INFLUX IN MOISTURE FROM
THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH. A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MONTICELLO, NY TO
SCRANTON, PA AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. ACROSS CNY, SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO OUR SOUTH WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME THICKER CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA.
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S, WHILE THE REST OF CNY HAS HIGHS WEDNESDAY PRIMARILY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER ONCE
AGAIN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A LARGELY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY
USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S TO THE NORTH, WHILE THE TWIN TIERS AND
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MID 40S. SOME
SPOTS IN THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL CAN FALL BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S, WHILE THE WYOMING VALLEY IN NE PA
REMAINS MILDER WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS TIME, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY OUT TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER
70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS TONIGHT NORTH
OF THE NY/PA BORDER. ELM HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LIFR FOG
WHILE ITH AND BGM HAVE A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE
FOG CAN MAKE IT OUT OF THE VALLEY IN THE MORNING AND IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. RME HAS A SMALL CHANCE AT FOG AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THE FOG WILL GET SOUTH ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR, EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY
FOG LIKELY EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MJM
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG
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