686
FXUS61 KBGM 161855
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL
LOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE TWIN TIERS,
CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST PA, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WHILE A STACKED COASTAL LOW SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NC WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER
SE VA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SLOWLY ERODE THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE LEADING TO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO AFTER 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE PA, MAINLY AROUND THE POCONOS, SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER SE VA TOMORROW BEFORE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF CNY TOMORROW, WHILE THICKER CLOUDS
STREAM OVER THE TWIN TIERS, CATSKILLS AND NE PA ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ANY RISK FOR THUNDER
ALSO LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S, WHILE THE REST OF CNY HAS HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER ONCE
AGAIN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS LARGELY DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S TO
THE NORTH, WHILE PORTIONS OF NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MID 40S. SOME SPOTS IN THE
CATSKILLS AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL CAN FALL BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S, WHILE THE WYOMING VALLEY IN NE PA REMAINS MILDER
WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS TIME, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY, MAINLY OUT TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH TUESDAY, BUT
THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LOOKS TO REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY DRY, SO IT LOOKS LIKE FOG MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED AND FOG
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 07Z WITH PERIODS OF LIFR UNTIL 12Z.
A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CREEP OVER
AVP AFTER 12Z, SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS AT AVP AND FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KELM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR, EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG LIKELY
EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL
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