241
FXUS61 KBGM 170558
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE PA
INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE AT FROST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COASTAL LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO OUR REGION. WITH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE AS WELL AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR, THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE CAPPED TO CHANCE AND
MAINLY KEPT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VIRGA SO EVEN IF THERE CAN BE SHOWERS TO
MAKE IT NORTH, ODDS ARE IT WILL MAINLY BE SPRINKLES AND HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS BUT THE LACK OF ANY
REAL LOW LEVEL JET MEANS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET A PARCEL TO RISE
HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO CHANCES
OF THUNDER WERE REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. STILL WITH THE
HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET ONE OR TWO
STRONG SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE CATSKILLS OR POCONOS.
THIS COASTAL LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT TO SEA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION SEEING DRY NW FLOW RETURNING.
THURSDAY IS ALSO LOOKING LIKE A WARM DAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A PARCHED FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN PLACE, CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIMITED TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL AS
A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH, FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH HAVE A HIGHER RISK OF FROST. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN BLENDED IN WITH NBM 10TH, BRINGING LOWS
DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S, THOUGH 40S STILL FOR THE LARGER
URBAN AREAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WONT BE AS
COLD SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH FINALLY TRIES TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US AND OPEN UP A BETTER MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS RIGHT NOW KEEP THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, IN THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500
MB HEIGHTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WITH A STRONGER RIDGE OUT WEST SO TRENDS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE AT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WE
HEAD INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING UP
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER THE SW FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR ELM, BUT WITH CURRENT
CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE THAT LOOKS TO STICK AROUND, AND THE
CROSSOVER TEMP BEING 51, CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER, IN THE CASE FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP, A TEMPO GROUP WAS MODIFIED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE; CHANGED TO 10Z TO 12Z. OTHERWISE, A COASTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO AVP, AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK
RAIN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS AT AVP AND FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KELM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR, EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG LIKELY
EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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