588
FXUS61 KBGM 171707
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER
WEATHER THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AS A COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, THOUGH A FEW OF
THE TYPICAL COOLER AREAS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. THERE WILL BE
SOME CLOUD COVER, BUT LIGHT WINDS AND A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY SOME HILLTOPS AS IT LIFTS
OUT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER
TOMORROW AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WHILE FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN, IT MAY CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN IT HAS PREVIOUS MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND BRING A COOLER END TO THE WEEK. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH, THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE DISPLACED JUST EAST
OF THE REGION. STILL, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MUCH COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AND
70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THIS FORECAST UPDATE KEPT
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND LOWS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH/LOW WILL DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND WILL BREAK THE CURRENT PATTERN
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WITH WHERE THIS TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED AND
WHAT IT MEANS FOR SHOWER CHANCES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, NBM
GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED AS IT HAS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (<35%)
TO START THE WEEK WITH THE MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND AROUND THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR ALL
EXCEPT AVP, WHERE A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO
AVP, AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK RAIN SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT A FEW TERMINALS (ELM,
BGM, ITH) INCREASES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH
TIMING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS MEDIUM. FOR NOW, WE PUT
BASIC PREVAILING LINES FOR FOG FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, AND WILL
FINE-TUNE WITH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS AT AVP AND FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KELM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR, EXCEPT TYPICAL VALLEY FOG LIKELY
EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR AT LEAST KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...AJG/BTL
LONG TERM...AJG/BTL
AVIATION...KL
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