889
FXUS61 KBGM 011723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND,
RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS AN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEST OF THE AREA, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
VERY DRY AND COOL AIR IN FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 60S, WITH UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW 60S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, SO THERE WILL BE A NICE AND CRISP FEELING TO THE AIR. TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY DROP AFTER SUNRISE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN HOW FAR OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WILL IT REQUIRE FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING, ACTIVE NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD
DECREASE, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS
COULD SPILL IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL BE DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S EXPECTED.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TO A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SHOULD GET MANY PARTS OF THE CWA INTO
THE 33-38F RANGE WITH NORTHERN ONEIDA, OTSEGO AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE ONE CAVEAT
IS SOME GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A WEAK LLJ FORMING BETWEEN 900MB
AND 800MB, WHICH COULD LIMIT FROST FORMATION ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED BY THIS.
GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING
STRONG CHANCES FOR LOW TEMPS BELOW 36F, FROST ADVISORY AND A
FREEZE WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 04Z TONIGHT TO 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING. THE FREEZE WARNING IS FOR DELAWARE, OTSEGO AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 28-32F RANGE. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME FOR
STEUBEN, TIOGA, TOMPKINS, BROOME, CHEMUNG, CHENANGO, CORTLAND,
MADISON, SOUTHERN ONEIDA AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES IN NY AND
BRADFORD, SUSQUEHANNA, WAYNE, WYOMING AND PIKE COUNTIES IN PA.
ACROSS THESE COUNTIES, TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 33-38F RANGE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT, ALLOWING FROST TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
TEMPERATURES START A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO TREND WARMER, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MID 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FOR THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SSWERLY DURING THE DAYS AND
CALM OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE
RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF US, PROLONGED SW FLOW WILL PUSH WARM AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE 50S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUES/WED AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WITH A
DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE, SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT AND ENOUGH WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE
CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION LOOKS VERY LOW ONCE AGAIN FOR ELM
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, SO NO RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL EARLY
MORNING FOG AT ELM THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ009-046-057.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...DK/KL
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