449
FXUS61 KBGM 012320
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
720 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND, RIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH
IS RESULTING IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, BUT PARTS OF
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
OR DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. A FEW OF THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA MAY APPROACH FREEZING AS WELL.
FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
ADDED IN SCHUYLER COUNTY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA, DELAWARE, AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY; MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BY
LATE THURSDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO EAST OF
THE AREA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FROST IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS, THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE ANY FROST
FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA,
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON FRIDAY, MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER. BY THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
FINALLY BRING SOME NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FAR
FROM A CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. TYPICALLY DURING ABNORMALLY
DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MODEL GUIDANCE PRECIPITATION TENDS TO
BE OVERDONE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG AT ELM IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER 03Z. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF FOG AT ELM BETWEEN 09-13Z AS A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT ALSO BECAUSE DURING THAT TIME IF THE FOG DOES
FORM IT COULD CREATE VARIABLE VSBYS. ANALOGS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AT ELM WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED FOG AND ALSO
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE STATISTICAL MOS DATA, SHOW
AT LEAST A CHANCE (25%) OF IFR FOG FORMING BETWEEN 09-13Z. ALSO,
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT (33 DEG) IS WELL BELOW THE
OBSERVED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE (37 DEG) WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL EARLY
MORNING FOG AT ELM FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ009-046-057.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-062.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJT/KL
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