852
FXUS61 KBGM 020518
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
118 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OBS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S WITHIN OUR FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNINGS.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW(MID
TO UPPER 30) TO GET TEMPS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE. ONE THING THAT MAY LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT WAS EXPECTED IS A 15-20KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS
SHOWING UP IN SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 950-900MB THAT MAY CAUSE ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST VALLEYS
SHOULD BE SHELTERED ENOUGH TO GET FROST TO FORM.
AFTER TONIGHT, WEATHER REMAINS QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S AND ON FRIDAY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) TO NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE QUICK TASTE OF FALL WEATHER LEAVES THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF US
AND WE GET INTO SSW FLOW THAT PUSHES WARM AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, KICKING OUT THE DOMINANT RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME WET WEATHER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING BACK
AND FORTH ON THE TIMING, BUT CURRENTLY IT SEEMS TO BE TARGETING
A TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY ARRIVAL FOR RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG AT ELM IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER 03Z. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF FOG AT ELM BETWEEN 09-13Z AS A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT ALSO BECAUSE DURING THAT TIME IF THE FOG DOES
FORM IT COULD CREATE VARIABLE VSBYS. ANALOGS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AT ELM WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED FOG AND ALSO
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE STATISTICAL MOS DATA, SHOW
AT LEAST A CHANCE (25%) OF IFR FOG FORMING BETWEEN 09-13Z. ALSO,
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT (33 DEG) IS WELL BELOW THE
OBSERVED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE (37 DEG) WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL EARLY
MORNING FOG AT ELM FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-046-057.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022>025-036-
037-044-045-055-056-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJT/KL
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