039
FXUS61 KBGM 020554
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OBS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S WITHIN OUR FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNINGS.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW(MID
TO UPPER 30) TO GET TEMPS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE. ONE THING THAT MAY LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT WAS EXPECTED IS A 15-20KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS
SHOWING UP IN SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 950-900MB THAT MAY CAUSE ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST VALLEYS
SHOULD BE SHELTERED ENOUGH TO GET FROST TO FORM.
AFTER TONIGHT, WEATHER REMAINS QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S AND ON FRIDAY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) TO NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE QUICK TASTE OF FALL WEATHER LEAVES THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF US
AND WE GET INTO SSW FLOW THAT PUSHES WARM AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, KICKING OUT THE DOMINANT RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME WET WEATHER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING BACK
AND FORTH ON THE TIMING, BUT CURRENTLY IT SEEMS TO BE TARGETING
A TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY ARRIVAL FOR RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE TIME AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AROUND ELM
EARLY THIS MORNING, SO KEPT THE TEMPO IN FROM 09-13Z FOR NOW.
DESPITE MOST THINGS CHECKING THE BOX FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST, MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 10-14 KNOTS OF WIND
SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE IS JUST VERY DRY, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG AT ELM FRIDAY MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-046-057.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022>025-036-
037-044-045-055-056-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DK
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