812
FXUS61 KBGM 030604
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A PASSING FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO BRING A BATCH OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE, WITH A WARMING TREND TAKING
SHAPE AFTER ONE MORE COOLER NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND YET IS
SPRAWLED ACROSS OUR WHOLE REGION. AS THAT HIGH SHIFTS DOWN
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WE WILL START TO GET INTO THE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THUS
BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. IT
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE, THOUGH NOT AS CHILLY AS LAST
NIGHT, WITH LOWS OF MAINLY 40S TO NEAR 50. SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY
COLDEST POCKETS EAST OF I-81 MAY SNEAK INTO THE 37-39 DEGREES
RANGE; ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT
NOT TO THE POINT OF NECESSITATING A FROST ADVISORY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD WHICH MAY
SOMEWHAT MITIGATE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOOST UP 5-9 DEGREES COMPARED TO THURSDAY,
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE, FOR MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH 80 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES WHERE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL WARMING. THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT, STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR LOWS AS WELL, WITH
LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER, WITH
ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATES. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND ALSO
RIDGING ALOFT, WILL PRESS HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S-LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND UP ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES SUNDAY. WHILE NOT BREAKING
DAILY RECORDS, TEMPERATURES COULD GET WITHIN AT LEAST WITHIN
SHOUTING DISTANCE OF THEM. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
YET ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY, BUT A WELL-
ADVERTISED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING WELCOME RAIN
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE HEAT PUMP GOING MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. MEANWHILE, MODELS PROJECT A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADA, WHICH WILL
SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATER
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS ADVERTISES MORE THAN AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITHIN THE 48
HOUR PERIOD UP TO 8 AM NEXT THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO BETWEEN A 25
AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT BEING AN INCH OF RAIN; GENERALLY
HIGHEST EAST. RIGHT NOW IT IS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN IT
ARRIVES AND DEPARTS AND THUS WHICH PERIOD ARE INVOLVED. EITHER
WAY, WHAT STARTS OFF AS UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S MONDAY WILL KNOCK
DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY TO SOMETHING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL, THIS RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF PAUSING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUR NORMAL FOG HOT SPOT, ELM, SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER HEAD SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONG WINDS FROM 950MB-900MB SHOULD HELP MIX MOISTURE OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS,
BUT ELM DOES HAVE SOME QUIRKS WHERE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL FORM
QUICKLY IF WINDS DISSIPATE FOR A SHORT PERIOD WHILE WE HAVE A
CLEAR PATCH OF SKY OVERHEAD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF GROUND FOG A FEW FEET OFF THE GROUND, BUT THICK FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED AND THUS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JTC/MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...JTC
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