691
FXUS61 KBGM 030649
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PASSING FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING A BATCH OF
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW, ALLOWING
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER, WITH
ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATES. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, AND ALSO RIDGING ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE NOT BREAKING DAILY
RECORDS, TEMPERATURES COULD GET WITHIN AT LEAST WITHIN SHOUTING
DISTANCE OF THEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY, BUT A WELL-
ADVERTISED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING WELCOME RAIN
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE HEAT PUMP GOING MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. MEANWHILE, MODELS PROJECT A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADA, WHICH WILL
SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATER
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES OVER 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHEN IT
ARRIVES AND DEPARTS. EITHER WAY, WHAT STARTS OFF AS UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S MONDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL. GIVEN THE
RECENT DRY SPELL, THIS RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE HELPFUL,
ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF PAUSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUR NORMAL FOG HOT SPOT, ELM, SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER HEAD SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AND SOMEWHAT
STRONG WINDS FROM 950MB-900MB SHOULD HELP MIX MOISTURE OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS,
BUT ELM DOES HAVE SOME QUIRKS WHERE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL FORM
QUICKLY IF WINDS DISSIPATE FOR A SHORT PERIOD WHILE WE HAVE A
CLEAR PATCH OF SKY OVERHEAD. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF GROUND FOG A FEW FEET OFF THE GROUND, BUT THICK FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED AND THUS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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