803
FXUS61 KBGM 031029
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PASSING FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING A BATCH OF
RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW, ALLOWING
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER, WITH
ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF SUN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
STILL DOMINATES. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, AND ALSO RIDGING ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE NOT BREAKING DAILY
RECORDS, TEMPERATURES COULD GET WITHIN AT LEAST WITHIN SHOUTING
DISTANCE OF THEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY, BUT A WELL-
ADVERTISED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING WELCOME RAIN
DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE HEAT PUMP GOING MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. MEANWHILE, MODELS PROJECT A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADA, WHICH WILL
SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATER
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES OVER 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHEN IT
ARRIVES AND DEPARTS. EITHER WAY, WHAT STARTS OFF AS UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S MONDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL. GIVEN THE
RECENT DRY SPELL, THIS RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE HELPFUL,
ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF PAUSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ELM ONCE AGAIN HAS A CHANCE FOR FOG. LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP MIXING MINIMAL AND SURFACE MOISTURE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. THIS, COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
WHICH SHOULD HELP DROP TEMPERATURES FAR ENOUGH TO HIT THE
DEWPOINT AND GENERATE PATCHY FOG WITH IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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