103
FXUS61 KBGM 031834
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PASSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
BIG BUBBLE, NO TROUBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED AROUND
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW IN OUR REGION, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
THE DRY AIR MASS ALSO MEANS, CLEAR NIGHTS, WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR AND AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON
SATURDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND ALSO
RIDGING ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AGAIN, WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO NBM THIS PERIOD WERE
TO DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING, DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
MIN RH IN SOME AREAS WILL DIP IN THE 20S PERCENT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE, SO THIS WILL LESSON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THIS TIME, MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT A SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE IN THE DAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS IS WELCOMED NEWS TO THE REGION, AS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS NOW EITHER IN A MODERATE DROUGHT OR UNDER ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME, REMAINS ON THE TIMING. EITHER WAY, WHAT STARTS OFF AS
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S TO START NEXT WEEK, WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TO
FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ELM WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WITH NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AND THE LOW RIVER LEVELS, THE FOG HAS BEEN MORE SUBDUED. BECAUSE
OF THIS, DECIDED TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP TOMORROW MORNING FOR
FOG, INSTEAD OF HAVING IT SOCKED IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND
CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MPK
LONG TERM...KL/MPK
AVIATION...ES
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