783
FXUS61 KBGM 040540
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BATCH OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER YET DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY, DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE HEAT
PUMP GOING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS OF MID 70S-LOWER
80S ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
ON SUNDAY. WHILE NOT QUITE TO DAILY RECORDS, THAT IS STILL A
SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE DRY AIR AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIDE DIURNAL RANGE
GOING, WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING, AND UPPER
40S-MID 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING IN THE FINGER LAKES TO
LAKE PLAIN MAY EVEN HOLD SOME LOCATIONS FROM DROPPING BELOW 60.
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, SOME OF THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN TO DRIVE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS TO ESPECIALLY FINGER
LAKES REGION WILL BE THE MOST PRONE TO THAT, ALLOWING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S PERCENT
RANGE. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WHILE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH TUESDAY, A
WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BATCH OF RAIN
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT-PREDAWN WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUN ONLY SOMEWHAT FILTERED BY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS, WILL ENSURE ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS OF
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT FOR MANY DAYS NOW, DRIVEN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA. THEY ARE NOW CONVERGING ON THE
TIMING, SWEEPING THE FRONT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET
MAXIMUM OCCURS AS WELL INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY, PLACING
OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR FORCED ASCENT. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POOLING
ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES OR SO OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. EVEN THOUGH FRONTAL
TIMING HAS SOMEWHAT QUICKENED, THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CONNECTED
TO THE GULF AND THUS THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
OCCURRING; INDEED THE MODELS HAVE HAD IT FOR MANY DAYS. WITH
TIMING THE WAY THAT IT IS, NARROW CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE FINGER
LAKES THROUGH NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER
EAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE HARDER TO FIND BUT AT LEAST CONVECTIVE
FRONTAL SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO
PRE-DAWN WEDNESDAY.
ALL TOLD, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS NOW HAS 80-95 PERCENT
ODDS OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FOR THE WHOLE AREA FROM
THIS SYSTEM, AND ABOUT 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A HALF
INCH FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. SMALLER CHANCES EXIST FOR A FULL
INCH OF RAIN, THOUGH THAT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN SOME
PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE WELCOME RAIN CONSIDERING
RECENT DRY WEATHER, AND WITH LEAF FALL STARTING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IT WILL AT LEAST PAUSE THINGS FOR A
LITTLE WHILE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS HAVE QUICKENED THE PACE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT ENOUGH,
TO THE POINT THAT MUCH OF WEDNESDAY APPEARS DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AS
WELL WITH HIGHS OF ONLY MID 50S TO MID 60S DESPITE SUNSHINE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER AND STILL FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. NIGHT-TIME PERIODS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST - PERHAPS FREEZE IN HIGHER TERRAIN - ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVERHEAD. THIS OF
COURSE WOULD NOT AT ALL BE UNUSUAL CONSIDERING WE WILL BE
ALREADY HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ELM WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FROM 06-13Z. GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINITY MAINLY
FOCUSED ANY RESTRICTIONS IN TEMPO GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND
CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ES/MWG
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