544
FXUS61 KBGM 050623
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BATCH OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG AROUND. THERE WILL BE RATHER LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BETWEEN 80 TO 85
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE MID-40S TO 50S OVER
THE AREA, WHICH IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A
SOUTHERLY BREEZY KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
IT. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, LOW/FRONT PLACEMENT IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS LEANING ON THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE NBM SEEMS TO OVER-DO THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER, WHERE MOST OF THE CAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH TO DEVELOP STORMS. WE
DECIDED TO CAP CHANCES AROUND 10-15 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A STEADY PERIOD OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. THESE CONDITIONS LOOKS
TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN POTENTIALLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DUE TO THE FRONT'S SLOW-MOVING NATURE. THERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
FRONT AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. IT IS STILL A LITTLE
EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
PRETTY HIGH FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
VERY WELL STILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
THOUGH, DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WITH THIS SLOW-
MOVING FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD IN, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO AROUND +4C LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MUCH
COOLER DAY TIME HIGHS; ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S OVER THE
AREA, WHICH IS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL RAPIDLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REACH DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST OR EVEN LOCALIZED FREEZE
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONAL FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, BUT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. BY NEXT SATURDAY, A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT ELM THIS MORNING WHERE FOG IS PROBABLE.
THE QUESTION WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING TO SEE VISIBILITIES QUITE VARIABLE AT
TIMES THIS MORNING BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS
AIRPORT MINIMUMS POSSIBLE (20-25 PCT CHANCE). ONCE THE FOG LIFTS
AND MIXES OUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT TYPICAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM LATE NIGHT-PREDAWN
MORNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND
CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJT/ES
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