350
FXUS61 KBGM 061038
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BATCH OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A STORM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH FULL SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA HAS PLACED
OUR REGION IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW. WITH THE CLEAR SKY
AND VERY LIGHT WIND, WE ARE GETTING WIDE DIURNAL RANGES BETWEEN
COOL MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COOL AS PRIOR NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GO AS LOW AS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA AS AN INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVES THE
SYSTEM, WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG
AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS SYSTEM BEING A LITTLE
UNORGANIZED, IT'LL LIKELY BE SLOWER IN NATURE. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THIS FRONT, WITH
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL LIKELY SPANNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ANY HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES SUCH AS FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BRING SOME EMBEDDED ORDINARY
STORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MAINLY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH THE MUCH-WELCOMED RAIN, THERE
WILL BE A SOLID 14-18 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS WEDNESDAY. AFTER
UPPER 50S-MID 60S WEDNESDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREA
COULD GET AROUND FREEZING, AND SHELTERED VALLEYS ALSO COULD GET
FROST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BACK TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES YET ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY-FRIDAY, AND STILL AT LEAST BE DOMINANT EVEN INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP IS LIKELY WITH
LIGHT-CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THUS OUR
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FROST WITH LOWS OF UPPER 20S-MID
30S; MORE LIKE UPPER 30S NEAR THE FINGER LAKES AND WYOMING
VALLEY. THIS OF COURSE IS NOT AT ALL UNUSUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR. THAT WILL BE BOOKENDED BY MID 50S-LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY, AND UPPER 50S-MID 60S ON FRIDAY.
MANY MEMBERS OF MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR
EVEN LOW ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY, YET SKEWING SOUTH WITH TIME. OUR AIR MASS LOOKS MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON.
THUS RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT DURING HE
WEEKEND, AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS IS AROUND CLIMATOLOGY
WITH HIGHS OF 60S-NEAR 70 AND LOWS OF MID 30S-LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WAS ABLE TO DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY FROM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND ELM THIS MORNING, WHICH PROVED
BENEFICIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT BY 12Z AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-11 KT AFTER 15Z. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL START TO PUSH IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVE CHALLENGING FOR THE FOG FORECAST AT
ELM. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MORE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT, BUT IF THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH, THEN FOG MAY BE LIMITED.
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH/SE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN PERIODS
OF RAIN. SSW-NW WIND SHIFT. GUSTS 20 KTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJT
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