129
FXUS61 KBGM 070006
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BATCH OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
STORM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A DOMINANT HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH AN
UPPER-AIR RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. TONIGHT, TWO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS—ONE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA—WILL PUSH EASTWARD. THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BECOME
DOMINANT, REACHING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HEIGHT FALLS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PLACE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250 MB JET, REACHING 130
KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
A STRONG, THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION, FORCING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT LOWER LEVELS (850 MB), A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO
AND OVER THIS FRONTAL SURFACE, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXHIBIT ANA-FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS, WITH RAIN CONTINUING AFTER ITS PASSAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY, INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS
SHOWERS BEGIN. WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT (35-40
KNOTS), MINIMAL CAPE SUGGESTS GENERAL THUNDER IS LIKELY ON DAY 2.
QPF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ½ TO 1 INCH OF BENEFICIAL RAIN DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IN WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION, THOUGH LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A LARGE
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST DURING WEDNESDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CAUSE COOLING TEMPERATURES, A NON-DIURNAL TREND. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH, REACHING NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HINDERING STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING EXCEPT IN
DEEPER VALLEYS. BUT, ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO NY
AND PA TO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. FREEZE WATCHES COULD BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT LOWER THAN NBM SINCE IT IS A DRY
AIR MASS AND NBM HAS BEEN TOO HIGH WITH MINIMUMS EVEN IN THE
CURRENT AIR MASS.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH
FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY BEING THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OF CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
BOTH OF THESE TWO NIGHTS AND ARE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ENHANCED OVER THE WEEKEND BY AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS
TO MUCH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, AND MODELS VARY ON THE LOW'S INTENSITY. THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW APPEARS WARM-CORE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING DECENT MOISTURE AMOUNTS. GIVEN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
THIS SYSTEM COULD HELP RETURN SOIL MOISTURE TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT ELM TONIGHT WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
07-11Z TIME FRAME. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CLEAR BUT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UP TO
8-10 KTS, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER FOG DEVELOPS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS TO RME, SYR, ELM, ITH AND BGM BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN. SSW-NW WIND SHIFT. GUSTS 20 KTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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