241
FXUS61 KBGM 070623
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY,
AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD, AND MUCH-
NEEDED, RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO THREE-QUARTER INCH IS LIKELY,
WITH AREAS IN NE PA POTENTIALLY SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL, ALL
THROUGH A 24 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE OF CONCERN DUE TO CURRENT DRY
CONDITIONS, THIS WILL BE A MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL EVENT.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY, INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
AS SHOWERS BEGIN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT (35-40 KNOTS), MINIMAL CAPE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR ORDINARY STORMS AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, THOUGH LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST DURING WEDNESDAY, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NON-DIURNAL TREND.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH, REACHING NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HINDERING STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING EXCEPT IN DEEPER
VALLEYS. BUT, ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO NY AND PA TO
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHERN PA. FREEZE WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WENT LOWER THAN NBM SINCE IT IS A DRY AIR MASS AND NBM HAS BEEN TOO
HIGH WITH MINIMUMS EVEN IN THE CURRENT AIR MASS.
FOR OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH FRIDAY
MORNING POTENTIALLY BEING THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH OF THESE
TWO NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BE ENHANCED OVER THE WEEKEND BY AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A
COASTAL STORM. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MUCH OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOCUSED ON NE PA
AND THE CATSKILLS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, AND MODELS VARY ON THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. GIVEN
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS SYSTEM COULD HELP RETURN SOIL
MOISTURE TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VERY LITTLE GUIDANCE HAS FOG AT ELM THIS MORNING BUT THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW, WINDS ARE LIGHT, AND SKIES ARE CLEAR, SO
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS, A TEMPO REMAINS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG BETWEEN 07 AND 11Z. BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL AND RAIN MOVES IN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY FALL TO MVFR/FUEL ALT
BUT THEN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT TO BE IMPACTED AS MUCH BUT A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES MORE THAN FORECASTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO START THIS PERIOD BUT WILL PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TODAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS AS GUSTS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AT
AVP.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR; LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL/DJN
AVIATION...BTL
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