506
FXUS61 KBGM 071751
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING ARE STILL SHOWING MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES, SO COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. FRONT
WILL EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DRIER, BUT MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. TOMORROW NIGHT, CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL MAKE FRIDAY MORNING THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR ANY LATE PLANTS THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DOESN'T KILL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE COASTAL
LOW EVERYONE WAS RAVING ABOUT BECOMING A NOR-EASTER A FEW DAYS
AGO IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT IS SHUNTED
BY THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BENEFICIAL, BY
NEXT WEEK, THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL START TO BRING
WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE FOREFRONT. PREDICTIVE SERVICES AT THE
NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER IN BOISE, ID HAS NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE CWA HIGHLIGHTED FOR ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN OCTOBER. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE COMING WEEKS, ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD INTO ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS TO
THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING THOUGH
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN CEILINGS
INITIALLY FALL TO MVFR/FUEL ALT. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW, FALLING TO
IFR/LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO THE
SHOWERS. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME IMPROVEMENT PRIOR TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED AT RME AND SYR
BY AROUND THEN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT CURRENTLY BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS WELL THOUGH
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AT
AVP.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR; LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MPK
LONG TERM...KL/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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