095
FXUS61 KBGM 071854
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING ARE STILL SHOWING MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES, SO COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. FRONT
WILL EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DRIER, BUT MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. TOMORROW NIGHT, CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL MAKE FRIDAY MORNING THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR ANY LATE PLANTS THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DOESN'T KILL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE COASTAL
LOW/NOR-EASTER THAT FORMS OFF OF THE CAROLINAS COULD STILL SNEAK
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN INTO AT LEAST NE PA AND
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE
WELCOMED, BUT THERE IS ALSO A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH BY THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP OUR
DROUGHT SITUATION, BY NEXT WEEK, THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
WILL START TO BRING WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE FOREFRONT ONCE
AGAIN. PREDICTIVE SERVICES AT THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE
CENTER IN BOISE, ID HAS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA HIGHLIGHTED FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
IN OCTOBER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE
COMING WEEKS, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY
SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VARYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE TERMINALS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BRINGING OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH A MIX OF MVFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH AT LEAST IFR VISBY AT TIMES GENERALLY THROUGH 08-09Z.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN MID-TO- LATE MORNING.
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR; LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MPK
LONG TERM...KL/MPK
AVIATION...DK
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