729
FXUS61 KBGM 080630
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL THEN EXIT THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MAX
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PEAK GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE USING AN EQUAL BLEND
OF NBM AND NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WHICH RESULTED IN FORECASTED LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR N. ONEIDA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, WYOMING VALLEY, AND POCONOS, A FROST
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO FROST MAY BE MORE PATCHY
THAN WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT ONLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S AND 30S AS ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ONCE AGAIN USING AN
EQUAL BLEND OF NBM AND NBM 50TH PERCENTILE. A FREEZE WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
EXCEPT THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE TEMPS WILL BE MORE MILD. OTHER
AREAS SUCH AS THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL BE BORDERLINE FREEZING BUT
WERE INCLUDED IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING AREAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND THOUGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THAT MEANS FOR RAIN CHANCES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL VARIES GREATLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL
MOVE UP THE COAST. A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WHEREAS A MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION STILL LEADS TO RAIN BUT WOULD BE MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW DRIFTS
OUT TO SEA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S
DURING THE DAY AND 40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VARYING LEVELS OF RESTRICTIONS AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 11-12Z AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES BRINGING OCCASIONAL IFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH A MIX OF MVFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE 06Z PERIOD, AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SHOWER INTENSITY DECREASES. RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN MID-TO- LATE MORNING. BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR; LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ009-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...KL
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