665
FXUS61 KBGM 240928
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
528 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING MORE TO THE WNW. THIS WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS
ACROSS CNY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW TO MID
50S. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER THE TUG HILL WILL SEE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT, AND
IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THEY COULD
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNY AND
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND ANY PRECIP CHANCE REMAIN LOW AT 15-20 PERCENT.
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN. HOWEVER, WITH COOL NW FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LAKES, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS SOME FLOW OFF THE LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT THINKING
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES, GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY KEEPING OUR AREA
LARGELY DRY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THE 0Z GUIDANCE. FORECAST DETAILS MID WEEK ON HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF OUR AREA SEES RAIN AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO ALTERNATE FROM VFR
TO MVFR AT MOST SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT RME AND SYR, WHICH MAY BRING SOME
BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT AVP.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...ES
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