839
FXUS61 KBGM 250610
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND EVEN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST US
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THE WESTERLY FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER THE REGION.
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S SOME WET SNOW FLAKES
OR GRAUPEL CAN CERTAINLY MIX IN AT TIMES; ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HILLTOPS. THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME ON SATURDAY, WITH A COLD
NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. 850MB TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY AROUND -4C AS A REINFORCING 500MB TROUGH SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MID-40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO STARTS TO BUILD. OVERALL, SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED. FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT MORE PATCHY
FOG OR FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE WELL
INTO THE 30S. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY DECOUPLE IN
THE VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD, DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST, INCREASING THE
DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IT IS LOOKING
VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S.
MONDAY FEATURES MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT A CLOSED 500MB
LOW WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD. OVERALL DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS IS AROUND
5-8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STARTING OFF DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WITH SEASONABLY COOL LOWS IN THE 30S. A
VERY COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN SHAPING
UP FOR MID TO LOW WEEK. WE HAVE A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST, A NEWLY DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
SLIDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA
TRACKING OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME SORT OF
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BRING A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO OUR AREA. THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR AND VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN COOL AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- 40S TO LOW 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. RME IS THE OUTLIER, WITH AN
LIFR DECK THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER THE TERMINAL. WITH HIGH
CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE HOW
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING SO WENT WITH AT TEMPO FOR THESE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS AS THIS WAS NOT PICKED UP IN
GUIDANCE. ITH WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. ELM AND BGM WILL ALSO SEE TEMPO
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY THE MORNING,
WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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