237
FXUS61 KBGM 250650
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY OVER CENTRAL
NY, WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A STRETCH OF
DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SPOTTY TO
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4 DEGREES C. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, A FEW
SNOW WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. OVERALL, SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST CUTTING OFF MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE LAKES. AS A
RESULT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IT IS LOOKING VERY COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS PATTERN KEEPS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RANGE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOL CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN
PLACE BUT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UNSETTLED AND SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE WEATHER SETUP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MID TO LATE WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BE AT PLAY,
ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES, AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW THAT BRINGS UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE SYSTEMS
WILL INTERACT, THEREFORE RELIED ON NBM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THOUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. RME IS THE OUTLIER, WITH AN
LIFR DECK THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER THE TERMINAL. WITH HIGH
CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE HOW
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING SO WENT WITH AT TEMPO FOR THESE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS AS THIS WAS NOT PICKED UP IN
GUIDANCE. ITH WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. ELM AND BGM WILL ALSO SEE TEMPO
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY THE MORNING,
WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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