257
FXUS61 KBGM 251733
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
EVENTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION A
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP AROUND CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN NE PA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30'S ON AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK TO
MAKE A SLOW CLIMB TO 50 OR SO. ANY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING AND QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE 20'S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO
INTERACT ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
HERE. SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL EXISTS ON HOW IT ORGANIZES INTO A
SINGLE LOW AND TRACKS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN IMPACTFUL STRONG LOW
TRACKING OVER US OR UP THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW, FEATURE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN CENTERED FOR LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW A BRIEF MIX OR EVEN A
PARTIAL WET SNOW EVENT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THAT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND WHAT DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES
CAN TAKE PLACE. ALSO, DEPENDENT ON TRACK WILL BE HOW STRONG THE
WINDS END UP ALONG WITH QPF. WE SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE TO HANDLE A
WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO. ALTHOUGH, IF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH
AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME REALIZED THEN THE FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE. FOR NOW, STAYED CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE
ON SOME OF THE DETAILS HERE BUT A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30'S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO 50 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW SHOULD START EXITING THE REGION FOR TRICK OR TREAT FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, COOL AND RAW CONDITIONS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WET SNOW DO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ITH
CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CLOUD DECKS. THE REST OF OUR TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME HINTS AT LOWER CEILINGS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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