887
FXUS61 KBGM 251756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
EVENTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION A
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP AROUND CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN NE PA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30'S ON AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK TO
MAKE A SLOW CLIMB TO 50 OR SO. ANY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING AND QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE 20'S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO
INTERACT ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
HERE. SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL EXISTS ON HOW IT ORGANIZES INTO A
SINGLE LOW AND TRACKS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN IMPACTFUL STRONG LOW
TRACKING OVER US OR UP THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW, FEATURE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN CENTERED FOR LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW A BRIEF MIX OR EVEN A
PARTIAL WET SNOW EVENT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THAT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND WHAT DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES
CAN TAKE PLACE. ALSO, DEPENDENT ON TRACK WILL BE HOW STRONG THE
WINDS END UP ALONG WITH QPF. WE SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE TO HANDLE A
WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO. ALTHOUGH, IF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH
AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME REALIZED THEN THE FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE. FOR NOW, STAYED CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE
ON SOME OF THE DETAILS HERE BUT A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30'S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO 50 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW SHOULD START EXITING THE REGION FOR TRICK OR TREAT FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, COOL AND RAW CONDITIONS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WET SNOW DO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AT SYR, THOUGH RME, ITH, AND BGM COULD ALL
SEE ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. BECAUSE
COVERAGE IS QUITE ISOLATED, VICINITY SHOWERS WERE USED. IN
ADDITION, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE HAS CEILING HEIGHTS BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD VFR
UNLESS THERE WERE MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES SCATTER OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS, FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT
ELM BUT FOG WAS ADDED TO ITH AND RME WHERE FOG WAS OBSERVED
EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME, ALL GUIDANCE SHOW SOMETHING
DIFFERENT WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO LIFT AND NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL AROUND 13Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
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